2025-26 Team Preview: Penn State

Congrats to Naz Hillmon, one of my all-time favorite players to watch in the Big Ten, for breaking the Atlanta Dream franchise record for consecutive games played with appearance No. 128.

Hillmon was a superstar at Michigan, but fell to Atlanta in the second-round of the WNBA Draft. The success rate of second-round picks even making opening game rosters is low, so for Hillmon to have made the team and thrived the way she has is a true feat.

She has really blossomed this season for the Dream, and has found a three-point shot she legitimately never had while with the Wolverines. She’s the type of player any team would love to have, and I will be manifesting Naz’s move to her hometown Cleveland expansion squad in a few years.

Last Week’s Preview (Purdue)

Table of Contents

• 2024-25 Overview

• Departures

• Returnees

• Incoming Players

• Outlook

2024-25 Overview

Penn State’s 2024-25 season is legitimately one of the most confusing to analyze that I have dealt with.

Carolyn Kieger’s squad was coming off a new high for her tenure — a 22-13 record that just missed out on the NCAA Tournament. That group was levied by a set of key players — Makenna Marisa, Ashley Owusu, Shay Ciezki and Leilani Kapinus — that all departed prior to last season, so some regression was to be expected.

The Nittany Lions had a very strong non-conference showing to start last season, winning 10 of 12 games with the two defeats being to solid competition (St. John’s, at Kansas) by single digits.

Then Big Ten play happened. Penn State lost 17 of 18 games against in-conference competition, but that doesn’t tell the full story, not at all.

Penn State was consistently defeated, but rarely blown out, with just three losses by 20+, and only one real meltdown in a 36-point defeat to Minnesota. The defense was never a strength, but it was the Nittany Lions’ turnover woes that really sunk them: Penn State ranked 349th nationally with 20.3 turnovers per contest.

Despite that, the underlying stats are genuinely surprising for a team with 17 conference losses. Penn State was a solid shooting and rebounding unit that played fast and gave up a lot of points, all things that the 23-24 team did as well. It’s also worth noting that this group’s single Big Ten win came against Ohio State, who hosted NCAA Tournament games. Weird, weird, year for the Lions.

Here's last year’s Penn State roster, sorted by Her Hoop Stats win shares:

Departures

Nine Penn State players are exiting from last season’s team, seven of which left through the transfer portal.

Gabby Elliott is the most significant contributor to depart. She was an experienced add from Clemson and Michigan State, and was a very solid scorer and three-point option that will be missed. Alli Campbell also put together extremely solid all-around production that should make her a major asset to a Fairfield team trying to make a third straight tourney.

Like Elliott, Jayla Oden was brought in as an experienced guard, and while her shooting numbers struggled, she still was an active defender and key playmaker that will have to be replaced.

The most concerning trend among the exits is underclassmen: Four of the members of Penn State’s five-player freshman class transferred out. Jill Jekot, Cam Rust, Talayah Walker and Ariana Williams all leave with three years of eligibility still to go, a worrying sign for Kieger’s program longevity, specifically for someone like Walker, who showed promise but didn’t get an abundance of minutes despite the losses piling up.

Returnees

The Nittany Lions are bringing just four players back, but it was oh so close to being half of that. Both Gracie Merkle and Moriah Murray entered the transfer portal before returning to Penn State. Merkle went as far as to commit to Big Ten foe Maryland before ultimately rescinding from the portal altogether.

Regardless of the circumstances, Penn State should be very, very happy with Merkle and Murray’s decision. Merkle was the team’s best player last year, and was an extremely efficient interior scorer and significant rebounder on both sides of the floor. She also did it in only 23.5 minutes per game, putting her per-40-minute numbers (26.4 points, 14.6 rebounds) among the best in the country.

While Merkle does her damage inside, Murray is the team’s sharpshooter. She knocked down 71 threes on a strong 37.8 percent efficiency, both numbers that grew from her freshman season. Murray has also only missed three free throws across her two-year collegiate career, shooting 96.0 percent from the line as a sophomore (albeit on only 25 attempts).

Joining this impressive returning duo are a pair of players who saw minimal action last season, and who will have a massive opportunity to grow their roles with just 10 total players currently on the 25-26 roster. Vitoria Santana’s first season at the Division-I level included some shaky shooting numbers, but she was an extremely involved passer in her minutes immediately.

Shaelyn Steele struggled with turnovers as a freshman, but hit 3 of her 7 three attempts and was a high-volume scorer in high school, so she could be utilized more in that role entering year two.

Incoming Players

Six new faces are entering the Penn State villa, with one name that is going to keep eyeballs on this team all season long.

Kiyomi McMiller left Rutgers after a freshman season that showed all of the highs — and lows — that can come with McMiller’s presence. She is one of the best natural ball handlers I have watched in the conference point blank period, and she has tons of ways to get her team a basket. She also shot chucks: McMiller’s 24 attempts per 40 minutes was the fourth-most by any player in the country.

Of course, McMiller also had some off-the-court storylines that caused her to miss games and to repost some not positive words against the Rutgers program. After all that, McMiller has ended up back in the Big Ten, and on a roster that could really use the best aspects of her game. If she stays locked in, Penn State got an absolute gem with a sky-high ceiling with multiple years of eligibility. But for now, the floor remains too volatile to say it with much certainty.

Penn State also added a pair of senior forwards that gives them solid depth alongside Merkle. Amiya Evans is a great under-the-radar add, as she put up some very strong rebounding numbers in just 20 minutes per game, and did so against SEC competition. Maggie Mendelson is an interesting one, as she is coming to the Nittany Lions both for basketball and volleyball. She was not a large factor for Nebraska in her lone basketball season, but brings great size and potential at 6-5 with her athletic background.

The three freshmen joining this roster should all have huge opportunities to fill the gaps on a roster that’s this small in size. Rachael Okokoh’s experience on Canadian national teams is a good sign for a more seamless collegiate transition, and Shayla Smith put up enough high school production to break a Dawn Staley record, so I am certainly keeping my eye out there.

Finally, Nyla McFadden played a part on a lot of successful teams at St. Thomas Aquinas, and is perhaps the only natural wing Penn State currently has on its roster. That gives McFadden all of the opportunity to make a good early impression and see a whole lot of game action.

Outlook

Projected Starters

• Kiyomi McMiller - G

• Moriah Murray - G

• Nyla McFadden - G/F

• Amiya Evans - F

• Gracie Merkle - C

Projected Big Ten Finish: 16th

Carolyn Kieger is entering her seventh season as Penn State’s head coach, and after five seasons of continued growth, the Lions fell back down to the bottom of the conference last season.

Kieger’s mountain top to this point is almost making the NCAA Tournament, and while she did return two key pieces that nearly left, so much of Penn State’s depth is gone from a team that already had its struggles. That said, the stats would say the Nittany Lions were not as bad as the 1-17 Big Ten record would state, and maybe there’s a path to picking up a more solid chunk of victories this time around.

The Kiyomi McMiller gamble is one worth taking for Penn State without question. She’s got the talent to lead this program to a bounce back, especially with Merkle and Murray combining to make a very talented trio that can grow together for multiple seasons. But much of the rest of the roster is unproven talent, and with only 10 players, any injury woes could lead to major issues.

The previously mentioned core three, plus Amiya Evans, feel like guaranteed starters, and I’m going to go with McFadden as the fifth piece because of how the roster sits with five guards listed 5-10 or shorter and three bigs listed 6-4 or taller (McFadden is 6-0, Evans is 6-2).

Murray is an excellent complement to McMiller’s skillset and could thrive on open looks from three. Merkle also should be able to clean up misses inside. There’s a lot of offensive potential I like from the top-end talent. But everything else feels like a gigantic question mark we will have to wait and see on, which doesn’t feel excellent for a coach in her seventh season.

Penn State shouldn’t bottom out the same way it did last year with the stars this roster has, but it’s hard to see a way back into NCAA Tournament contention unless everything breaks exactly right.

Photo Credit: Penn State Athletics

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