Nebraska’s season was on the tipping point of falling short more than ever this week.

The Cornhuskers had stumbled in the back half of the conference slate, losing five straight and eight of their last 10 heading into an ever-crucial West Coast trip to play Oregon and Washington.

The first of those two games started with promise that fell agonizingly short. Nebraska had a double-digit lead in the fourth quarter against the Ducks, but blew that lead down the stretch. Oregon won the fourth quarter 28-15, Nebraska’s game-tying three attempt from 29.1% deep shooter Jessica Petrie missed, and the Huskers blew a golden chance to get their first Quad 1 win of the season.

A few nights later, Nebraska had another chance. Again, it was close late, on the road, against a future NCAA Tournament team. But again, it was that team that took the lead on the Huskers late. Trailing by 2 in the final moments, this time Nebraska turned to Britt Prince.

The sophomore star, with the team’s final confirmed opportunity to get a big résumé win, stepped back, found just enough space to take the three for the lead, and she sunk it.

Washington got not one, not two, but three looks at the basket to re-take the lead, but they all fell short.

Nebraska won a Quad 1 game for the first time this season, snapped the six-game losing streak and gave itself a real shot at staying in the Field of 68. As of this morning, ESPN has the Huskers as the Last Team In the field, so there’s plenty of work to do.

But thanks to Prince’s heroics, there’s hope.

Last Hoopla: More Maryland Heroics

So that’s Nebraska’s current standing. They play just one game in the final week — home against Rutgers — before the Big Ten Tournament. That’s a clear must-win game, but the Cornhuskers are very unlikely to make any moves in conference seeding between now and the tourney.

Nebraska has a 98.0% chance of finishing as the 12-seed, the second-highest likelihood of any Top 15 seed behind only UCLA, who has clinched the Big Ten title. For the rest of the Big Ten (except Rutgers, who is eliminated), this week is significant for conference placement.

Outside of the Big Ten, the 11 teams above Nebraska are all very likely NCAA Tournament teams fighting for varying levels of significant seeding on the national scale. I would argue that this week is pretty important for a lot of teams, me personally.

Wisconsin (5-12) — 98.4% chance at Top 15
Indiana (4-12) — 92.2%
Purdue (4-12) — 87.6%
Penn State (3-13) — 20.1%
Northwestern (2-14) — 1.7%

Let’s start at the bottom, as these are the teams legitimately fighting for their season’s lives this week. Say what you want about the Top 15 format, but it at least makes these final games really matter for the bottom of the conference.

Wisconsin once had a 5-4 record in the conference. Now, I’m back to looking at hypothetical ways the Badgers could blow this in catastrophic fashion. Not a strong way to end a season that had some real promise at the start.

I think Wisconsin is still plenty safe, but the Badgers are also likely to not add any more wins with Iowa being the last game on the schedule. So, they must hope things go poorly for the teams below them.

The big game to watch to make everything down here much more interesting is if Penn State can pull some magic against USC. That game is tomorrow (2/25) and, if the Nittany Lions lose, the Badgers clinch. Penn State has won 3 of its last 5, including one over Purdue that keeps the team kicking even with an early week loss. It’s been a “feed Kiyomi” mindset, and I can’t argue with the results: McMiller has 30-plus in five straight games and is shooting 52.5% on 24 attempts per contest during the stretch.

Indiana mostly controls its own fate on the 25th: If the Hoosiers take care of business against Rutgers, they will be at nearly 99% to stay in the Top 15. If that comes with a USC win and an Oregon win over Purdue, Indiana and Wisconsin are both clinched. This is all before the Hoosiers play Penn State on the 28th, so if the results go more the other direction, this becomes the most substantial game of the week.

The Boilermakers clinch a Top 15 spot by beating Oregon thanks to the extra tiebreakers about wins above the standings. Even if Wisconsin beats Iowa, even if Penn State gets to five wins, Purdue stays in the tourney. If Purdue loses, any Nittany Lions win in the final week will cause the Boilermakers to need a win against Northwestern to stay in (unless Rutgers beats Indiana).

Northwestern fans, you’re holding on by a thread and need a stunner against Maryland to have a chance. If the Wildcats can beat both the Terps and Purdue… they move up to 40.6% for getting a bid. They also need Purdue to lose to Oregon and Penn State to have an 0-2 finish to sneak into the Top 15. Not impossible, but coming into the week with a nine-game losing streak does not inspire much optimism.

UCLA (17-0) — 100% chance at Top Four
Iowa (13-3) — 99.7%
Michigan (13-3) — 95.3%
Minnesota (12-5) — 51.4%
Ohio State (12-4) — 37.9%
Michigan State (11-6) — 11.3%
Maryland (10-6) — 4.4%

As established, the Bruins are not only safe for a double bye, but also as the confirmed top seed. A second win over USC would complete the undefeated regular season in the Big Ten.

Iowa all but clinched a Top Four spot, and made itself the heavy favorite for the 2-seed, with the dominant win over Michigan last week. It was Iowa’s most impressive performance of the season, with Ava Heiden dominating inside and the Hawkeye defense smothering the Wolverines’ attack. It gives the Hawkeyes a 82.1% chance at staying at 2, with a 2-0 week (home vs. Illinois, away vs. Wisconsin) or a win and a single Michigan loss clinching that spot.

As for Michigan, Ace at The Bucket Problem did a great breakdown on what exactly went wrong against the Hawkeyes and the potential for other teams to exploit similar weaknesses. The Wolverines need to adapt quickly, because they end the season against Ohio State and Maryland, two massive games to decide where they end up in both the Big Ten and NCAA tournaments.

As established, if Iowa goes 2-0, the best the Wolverines can do is end at 3. But how does Michigan fall out of the Top Four? That takes an 0-2 week, Ohio State losing to Michigan State and Minnesota beating Illinois. That situation has the Gophers, Buckeyes and Wolverines all at 13-5, with tiebreakers keeping the former two above the latter thanks to Ohio State’s head-to-head win and Minnesota’s win over Iowa. Unlikely, but not impossible.

Minnesota finally saw the nine-game win streak snap last weekend with the defeat to Michigan State, a huge game for the Spartans to stay in the running here and for Top 16 placement. The Gophers have just one game to go against Illinois, and a win there should keep them in the Top Four unless Ohio State sweeps Michigan and Michigan State. On the other hand, Minnesota is out of the double bye with a loss to the Illini, no ifs, ands or buts about it.

Sure, Ohio State is on the outside looking in for these projections, but as said above, the Buckeyes control their destiny. Wins against both Michigan teams secures the double bye, but a loss early in the week against the Wolverines puts everything on the table for Sunday.

Michigan State’s only game this week is Sunday against the Buckeyes, and the Spartans have to begrudgingly be Michigan fans early in the week in order to have a chance at the Top Four. With two Michigan wins, Michigan State would need a victory and a Minnesota loss on the final day to get the three-way tie at 12-6 that favors the Spartans in tiebreakers.

Finally we have Maryland, who also needs Michigan to beat Ohio State to have a chance. Everything else is the same situation as the Spartans: Michigan State win and a Minnesota loss. But if the Terps have beaten Michigan on the 28th, then Michigan State will be winning to get Maryland over the hump and into the top four thanks to these tiebreakers:

Maryland (10-6): 98.8% chance at Top Nine
USC (9-7): 92.3%
Illinois (9-7): 63.9%
Washington (9-8): 21.9%
Oregon (7-9): 23.2%

If Maryland beats Northwestern at home, the Terps have secured a single bye. It’s not a given, but I’m too many words in to go into considerable discussion there because I think that’s happening. Even a loss keeps them near 90%, and I think them sneaking into the Top Four is far more likely than falling past ninth.

That Penn State-USC game discussed earlier is equally huge here. If USC falls to the Nittany Lions, the Trojans go from near lock (99.8% with a win) down to almost a coin flip at 64.2%. If USC also drops the rematch to UCLA, it’s all up for grabs between these final four teams.

Illinois gets Iowa (road) and Minnesota (home) to end the season, two difficult matchups the Illini are not favored to win. However, if they manage to snag a victory in either matchup, they lock in the bye for the opening round. An 0-2 week doesn’t close the door entirely depending on what Oregon does, but it takes the situation out of the Illini’s hands.

As for Oregon, the Ducks are two full games out of the single bye to start the week, but travel to face Purdue tomorrow in a must-win game to have a chance. A victory there should put incredible stakes on the Ducks-Huskies rematch that ended in a nasty 51-43 Washington win the first time around. A two-win week matched with a two-loss week by the Illini puts the Ducks in that 9 spot.

Also notable: An 0-2 week for Oregon could have NCAA Tournament implications as the Ducks are not completely safe from that bubble.

The Oregon rematch is Washington’s only game of the week and a win there makes the Huskies likely, but not at all guaranteed for a bye. They would also need two losses from either Illinois or USC to leap those teams without the head-to-head tiebreakers.

Hello! That was a lot of words about a lot of scenarios that may or may not even happen. If I lost you in the weeds, here is generally what each fanbase should be rooting for in the final week:

Photo Credit: Nebraska Women’s Basketball (@HuskerWBB), Twitter

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