IT IS HERE IT IS TIME FOR THE DANCE OF GREAT MAGNITUDE.

The first round of the NCAA Tournament begins on Thursday for the men and Friday for the women. The First Fours begin today and tomorrow, respectively. It’s the absolute best time of the year and it is time for everyone to see how much smarter they are than me.

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The group will remain open until the first game starts Friday morning!

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Enough promo. Time to talk about our Big Ten Dirty Dozen.

Last Hoopla: Conference Tournament Takeaways

Here’s the full NCAA tournament bracket, along with dates, times and channels for the opening games:

Twelve teams from our beloved conference are dancing. Five of those teams — Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio State and UCLA — are hosting their first round games, and one team — Nebraska — plays Wednesday (tomorrow) to get into the Round of 64.

On the whole, I thought the Big Ten was represented fairly in the selection process. The Cornhuskers got into the field despite losing their only game in the Big Ten Tournament. Michigan held onto a 2-seed. Washington got a generous 6-seed placement. Perhaps Maryland could have stayed in the Top 16, but the Terps had a chance for it and lost to Oregon.

I’m breaking this post up into two days to properly talk about each of these 12 teams and their potential routes through the bracket. Why am I starting with Regions 3 and 4? The answer is simple: I want to talk about UCLA last. The Bruins are the Big Ten’s best shot at a national title this season and that feels like it should be a grand finale.

So, we start with the bottom half first. There’s six teams here split unevenly between the two regions (four teams in 4, two in 3) including two hosts.

The Ducks continued the strong momentum from last year’s NCAA Tournament group into a very similar 25-26 season. The big difference this year was in the Big Ten Tournament: Instead of an immediate exit, Oregon won a pair of games, including one against a very strong Maryland unit, before falling to the Wolverines.

Stylistically, Oregon is a very well-rounded unit. The Ducks rank in the Top 55 nationally in field goal, three point and free throw percentage, and they aren’t heavy on the volume of any of those areas in particular. They are a mediocre rebounding team (188th in rate) but are great at moving the ball around with 17.0 assists per game (28th).

The playmaking revolves around Katie Fiso (15.3 PPG, 6.3 APG), who ranks eighth in the country in assists per game herself. She’s also the team’s leading scorer after averaging 3.1 PPG in less than 10 MPG as a freshman. It’s quite a rise, and she does almost all of her work getting to the rim.

That’s even more of the story for Ehis Etute (12.6 PPG, 8.9 RPG), who has been a monster in the back half of the season for the Ducks. She comes into this tournament with a seven-game streak of scoring 15+, and five of those have been double-doubles. She can be a game wrecker on the offensive glass and has really come into her own as the season progressed.

Oregon is at its best as a defensive powerhouse, and the Ducks come in with momentum on that side: Torvik has them as the 12th-best defense nationally over their last 10 games. They are, similarly to the offense, not a standout group in many areas, but are solid in every non-rebounding area. Oregon is especially good at defending the three though, which could be a matchup swing with the right opponent.

It starts with an 8-9 against the Hokies. Of Virginia Tech’s nine defeats, just one back in late November (BYU) was against a non-tourney team. The Hokies have also won 5 of their last 7, with both losses coming against 4-seed UNC.

Virginia Tech has been strong at constraining three-point attempts (15th-fewest) and forcing touch twos (26th-lowest opponent 2PT%). This has helped cover up some weaknesses offensively, were the Hokies rank outside of the top half from inside and outside the arc. They also have avoided turnovers (25th in TO rate) and can block shots, swatting nearly five a game (29th).

Carys Baker (14.1 PPG, 6.7 RPG, 1.1 BPG) and Carleigh Wenzel (15.3 PPG, 3.4 APG) lead the offense and both are willing to let it fly from deep for a combined 11.1 attempts per contest. That would, however play into Oregon’s hands, and I think the Ducks’ strengths on offense work in their favor for this matchup. An 8-9 is always a near coin flip, but I think the Ducks can get through here playing how they did in the Big Ten Tournament.

If so, could they give Texas a fight? The Longhorns are always a fascinating bunch to me, as they are clearly one of the best teams in the country and yet they always make me so mad with how much they simply will not shoot threes (363rd out of 364 teams in three-point rate).

The lack of threes always gives a team on a heater a chance, but teams don’t have heaters against the Longhorns. They are a dominant defensive unit and Madison Booker (18.9 PPG, 6.5 RPG, 3.8 APG, 2.3 SPG) is a superstar that wouldn’t allow for such shenanigans. Texas’ biggest strength is its ability to not beat itself while making opponents do it — the Longhorns have a 1.49 assist-to-turnover ratio (5th) and they force a nation-leading 0.40 assist-to-turnover ratio. For those reasons, I don’t think Oregon can get there, but another first round victory would be quite a success after losing Elisa Mevius two games into the season.

Prediction: Round of 32

The Wolverines started this season much like the year before: Proving something by nearly defeating the reigning national champion. Then, it was a season-opening defeat to South Carolina. This year, it was a three-point loss to UConn in Mid-November. The Huskies have not played another single-digit game this year.

The unfortunate truth of Michigan’s season thus far is that it feels built to highlight the defeats despite there being so many more wins within it. That’s because of the fashion of the losses: Three by exactly three points against two 1-seeds (UConn, UCLA) and a 2-seed (Vanderbilt), two eerily similar routs to Iowa and one anomaly defeat to Washington.

Outside of those, Michigan has won 12 games against NCAA Tournament opponents thanks largely to its sophomore trio of Olivia Olson (19.2 PPG, 6.2 RPG), Syla Swords (14.5 PPG, 4.2 RPG) and Mila Holloway (12.4 PPG, 4.7 APG). They are deep in stars, and have proven to be deep with role players as well, including the relentless Brooke Quarles Daniels (5.2 RPG, 2.4 SPG, the points aren’t important), who made the conference all-defense team.

The Wolverines score the ninth-most points in the country thanks to Top 20 efficiency from inside the arc and a group of excellent rebounding guards that gave Michigan the 12th-best rebounding rate in the nation. This is a group that moves the ball around well (18th in APG) and forces nearly 22 turnovers per contest.

All of this firepower makes the Holy Cross game not worth talking about: If Michigan loses it, it will be because of something I could have never foreseen. Moving from there, the Wolverines will immediately get a test from either the 7 or the 10 in the region.

If it’s the 10-seed, it will be Tennessee, a talented group that has completely fallen apart down the stretch with seven straight losses. Those defeats have come to tough competition, but the vibes are heinous from afar. The Vols and Wolverines have something in common: Both are allergic to making free throws, with Tennessee’s 67.0% (311th) helping Michigan’s 67.9% rate (291st) look passable.

The other option is NC State, a program that has made the Sweet 16 in six of the last seven tournaments. The Wolfpack are strong at avoiding turnovers (8th in rate), but also avoid forcing them (343rd). A similar paradox is in place for their free throws, which they are great at making (76.2%, 41st), but can’t get (349th in rate).

This should be a great game, but I like NC State’s rebounding dominance and Tennessee’s recent lack of any defense at all to persevere. State won’t let Michigan get to the line, which is great because that’s where the Wolverines are the worst. I do think NC State’s dominance inside would be an interesting challenge to deal with, but one that the Wolverines can ultimately overcome at home to get into the next weekend.

I won’t go in extreme depth about the matchups from there, but I think Michigan would much prefer facing Alabama to Louisville of the most likely opponents. The Crimson Tide are a strong perimeter unit but can be beaten on the glass and haven’t overly impressed in SEC play. Louisville, similar to Michigan, keeps losing heartbreakers, and has not lost a game in regulation by more than one possession since Nov. 22 (Kentucky).

The Cardinals are very strong defensively and outrageously balanced: Their top seven scorers average between 8.4-11.4 PPG. This team wins from up and down the roster and is a difficult matchup because of it. That said, I think the Wolverines get to Texas where they come up short. The Hawkeyes utilized BQD’s lack of offensive presence as a weapon to suffocate the rest of the attack and Iowa wasn’t all that interested in winning on the perimeter either. The Longhorns should have the defensive dominance to do enough for the win, though a big game from Swords and Olson could absolutely give them a chance.

If it’s chalk, I think the Longhorns continue making it chalk. But this is March, and we will see how everything lies next week.

Prediction: Elite Eight

Oh USC, which version of you am I getting this time?

Less than a month ago, the Trojans were humming: Six straight wins, started with Iowa’s first conference loss of the season and also including a road win over Illinois. Then, four losses in a row to end up here, including a disastrous one to Penn State, a second blowout loss to rival UCLA and an embarrassing immediate exit to Washington in a game that was less close than the score shows.

Maybe that’s just what happens when a team is so centered around the success of a true freshman. Jazzy Davidson (17.6 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 4.2 APG, 2.0 SPG, 2.0 BPG) leads USC in every category within that parentheses. Her efficiency has been lacking (39.8 FG%), but she has sky-high potential and can dominate at any moment.

Kara Dunn (15.3 PPG, 5.2 RPG) is a steady secondary presence, and is USC’s top perimeter weapon. These two, along with Kennedy Smith (11.6 PPG, 3.7 APG) make for a trio of guards with excellent defensive versatility.

USC is eighth in the nation in blocks per game and is great at forcing opponents off the perimeter. The offensive numbers are all ranging from mediocre to not good, which puts even more pressure on defensive excellence to get the Trojans through.

Clemson is a fascinating first matchup, and this may be a game that comes with a warning for sensitive eyes.

The Tigers play slow (346th in pace) and want to drag you into the mud. USC’s offensive woes have forced similar games plenty, so the Trojans should be prepared for it. Mia Moore (13.5 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 4.6 APG) is the team’s top weapon, but Rusne Augustinaite (10.9 PPG, 42.3 3PT%) could be a game-changer in a potential low-scoring battle.

USC has the athleticism to win this one here, but man, the Trojans have looked dreadful the last few times we have seen them. It’s very possible they shake that off and win this game — USC is the more talented team — but I worry Clemson’s pace could discourage a group that has shown discouragement recently.

I’m leaning the Tigers giving USC an early exit, but hypothetically could the Trojans fight with South Carolina if they do advance? Well no, but I think there’s a chance the backcourt could heat up and at least make the Gamecocks work for it.

Prediction: Round of 64

It’s been a bit of a topsy-turvy finish for the Huskies, but the dominant win over the Trojans, along with two key victories over Oregon, moved Washington up into the 6-seed line, where I imagine the Huskies are about to be the hot pick to lose in the first round.

We’ll get there, but Washington has continued to emphasize the slow and steady style of attack. The Huskies are 286th in pace and 37th in effective field goal percentage, all of which is helped by a top 30 rebound rate. Like Oregon, the stats don’t show a lot of eye-popping numbers, but Washington has found a way to win anyway.

Sayvia Sellers (18.5 PPG, 3.7 APG) has led this team offensively and has continued to impress me with her growth. The same is true for Avery Howell (13.7 PPG, 8.3 RPG), one of the best rebounding guards in the conference and a 41.9% shooter from distance.

If the Huskies are going to make a run, two other players could be critical in making that happen. The first is Elle Ladine (10.4 PPG) who battled injury to start the year and never got it going like she did the season prior. That is, until the USC game where she ignited for a season-high 25 points. Perhaps that’s a sign for things to come.

The other name if freshman Brynn McGaughy (9.0 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 1.1 BPG), a budding former five-star that finished the season with four double-digit scoring games out of the last five. Any offensive boost is even more massive for a team like Washington that plays with fewer possessions.

South Dakota State is here again, even though the Jackrabbits didn’t even win their regular season title (shoutout the Bison). This is the team’s fourth straight tournament appearance, and two of those have included first-round upsets.

This is not a clash of styles matchup: This is a matchup of the same style. South Dakota State plays pretty slow (240th in pace) and with extreme efficiency (9th in eFG%). The Jackrabbits are also excellent rebounders (18th in rate), avoid turnovers (1.18 AST/TO, 28th) and stat out of foul trouble (11th in fouls per game).

But it could also boil down to one question: Can Brooklyn Meyer (22.4 PPG, 8.0 RPG, 1.9 BPG) dominate the way she has much of this season? She’s been here for all four of those tournament appearances, has scored 24+ in her past four games and has done plenty of damage to other Power Four opponents (27 against Duke, 20 against Texas).

I expect a big Meyer game but, like in those Duke and Texas games, in a loss. The Huskies are too good in a slowed-down setting, and too deep with talent to let it happen in my opinion.

That would then (likely) lead to an incredible matchup of purple with TCU. The Horned Frogs’ first loss in regulation buy more than two points came in the Big 12 Championship against West Virginia (by 9). They are back with a new-look roster led by a new-look star point guard in Olivia Miles (19.6 PPG, 6.9 RPG, 6.4 APG).

TCU has suffocated its opponents this season, allowing the lowest 2PT%, eFG% and points per attempt in the nation. The Horned Frogs are strong rebounders, efficient all over the court and, oh yeah, also play pretty slow (198th in pace). I think this would be a tough sell in a neutral site, let alone on the road, for the Huskies to make happen.

Prediction: Round of 32

Michigan State kind of feels like a lot of Michigan State’s recent teams under Robyn Fralick, and I mean that both positively and negatively.

The Spartans won 22 games and continue being among the upper half of the conference. They are an awesome offense to watch when it’s cooking, with a Top 10 FG% and 11th-best 3PT% nationally. Michigan State averages 18.2 APG and does it without making mistakes with a 1.40 AST/TO ratio (9th).

This season has been a revelation for Kennedy Blair (14.4 PPG, 7.1 RPG, 5.4 APG, 2.3 SPG) a feisty, high-emotion do-it-all weapon that can completely change the energy of a game. Grace VanSlooten (15.0 PPG, 6.6 RPG) is still the key weapon on the interior and is averaging 2.9 stocks per game. Rashunda Jones (11.8 PPG, 2.1 SPG) and Jalyn Brown (11.1 PPG, 52.7 FG%) have been key transfer adds to help round out the scoring attack.

Michigan State’s defense has had some struggles, allowing 85+ in five of its defeats. Opponents shoot the ball well against the Spartans (324th in eFG%), which makes the disruptions all the more important. If Michigan State can do one thing on defense, it’s disrupt: Sparty ranks 33rd in TO rate and 28th in steal rate.

The first matchup is against the Rams, led by Hoopla alum Lexus Bargesser (15.2 PPG, 5.8 RPG). She leads the No. 1 offense in avoiding turnovers, with only 10.4 per game. They also play extremely slow (337th in pace), which could frustrate the typically speedy Spartans.

This Colorado State defense has been dominant, allowing 54.9 PPG and holding opponents to 35.0% shooting, both the 7th-best nationally. It’s been an impressive year for the unit, but Colorado State has also not played anyone on Michigan State’s caliber. I expect that to show itself eventually, maybe after a sweaty first half, and the Spartans prevail here.

But what about Oklahoma? The Sooners are the host team and will almost certainly beat Idaho to get here. Michigan State would have to re-adjust the brains back to speed mode because Oklahoma plays with the fastest pace in the nation and scores 86.7 per game through it. The Sooners are actually a very bad three-point shooting team but win through strong interior efficiency and excellent rebounding (7th in rate).

I actually think the Spartans are equipped to handle a team like this, though Reagan Beers (15.7 PPG, 10.4 RPG, 61.5 FG%) is absolutely a matchup issue. I want to pick Michigan State to pull the upset off here, but can I pull the curtain back for a moment and say… I’m scared to do it. I picked Iowa to do the same thing last year and the Sooners blew the doors off of them and I don’t want to be made a fool again.

Well, maybe I’m just an Oklahoma hater, but I’m doing it again. Give me Michigan State in an upset to the second weekend, where the Spartans can then be South Carolina’s next victim.

Prediction: Sweet 16

The Hawkeyes are back as one of the top seeds in the NCAA Tournament a mere two years after Caitlin Clark’s tenure. Love them or hate them, that is wildly impressive from head coach Jan Jansen and co.

How’d Iowa do it? Efficiency. This unit is seventh in eFG%, shoots the ball well from two and three and moves it around brilliantly with the second-best assist rate in the country. The Hawkeyes don’t shoot an abundance of threes but is so reliable at getting good looks inside, it often hasn’t mattered.

Ava Heiden (17.4 PPG, 7.3 RPG, 64.7 FG%) took that late-season potential and turned it into a phenomenal year. She is one of the best paint scorers in the country thanks to an offense that has many ways of getting her the ball. One of those is her interior partner Hannah Stuelke (13.4 PPG, 8.5 RPG, 2.8 APG) who has become such a terrific well-rounded big by her senior season.

The backcourt is led by Chit-Chat Wright (12.3 PPG, 4.6 APG, 45.2 3PT%), a deadly deep shooter and a terrific playmaker with an AST/TO north of two. These are the three stars of the team, but the current seven-player core rotation works so well together, and has gotten this team where it currently sits.

Iowa, like Michigan, has a case of bad-free-throw-itis (69.1 FT%, 261st), but the big thing I need to see from Iowa to make a deep run is a re-ignited offense on the whole. It was the Hawkeyes’ defense that led the way to the Big Ten Tournament final as Iowa averaged 56 PPG. That type of output won’t keep you in the Big Dance for long.

Fairleigh Dickinson is a great wake-up call first matchup for the Hawkeyes. I know I have talked your ear off on pace already, but the Knights play slower than all of them discussed so far: 355th in the country. They allow 51.3 PPG (3rd) and teams average 0.85 points per scoring attempt (4th). FDU is also 10th in rebound rate and absolutely fires it from deep (315 made threes, 5th). Four different players have attempted more than 150 threes this season.

If this matchup felt any closer on paper, I think the Knights have a lot of the makings of a Cinderella team. It’s not impossible, but I don’t think the Hawkeyes will be in true, actual danger at home against them. But, FDU may keep it close and it may force Iowa to bring the energy and that’s what I hope to see.

Georgia, Virginia or Arizona State could be the Round of 32 matchup, which is too many options to go into extensive depth on as I approach 4,000 words here. The Bulldogs have four 11+ PPG scorers and have a strong defense overall, the Cavaliers are the nation’s best shot-blocking team and are great on the glass, and the Sun Devils have two excellent scorers and Last-Tear Poa in case she has intricate details about how LSU destroyed the Hawkeyes three years ago.

Of the three, I think Virginia has the scariest archetype for a potential upset, but I would take Iowa against any of them without too much thought. That moves the Hawkeyes to the second weekend and, if I’m right elsewhere, a matchup with TCU. This game would rule because I think the Horned Frogs are a dangerous bunch with a lot of talent.

Iowa has big wins on the schedule — Michigan twice, Ohio State, Maryland, Michigan State, etc. — but the only loss since the three-game losing streak was one that showed just how far ahead UCLA is when it matters most. TCU is not UCLA, but I think it has a high-talent profile that would concern me for the Hawkeyes.

Ohio State has beaten TCU, and the transitive property is so awesome with how much it is always right. I have gone back and forth on this one a lot, but I’m ultimately leaning Iowa squeaking by in a similar fashion to the Buckeyes against them. The defense has looked so overpowering at times for the Hawkeyes, and I think we see the attack find more energy.

That talent concern becomes expedited times one million against South Carolina. I think the Gamecocks are genuinely beatable this season and they are more beatable on the interior than in most recent campaigns. That gives Iowa a chance, but do the Hawkeyes have enough to deal with the likes of Joyce Edwards, Raven Johnson and Tessa Johnson? My instinct is no.

Prediction: Elite Eight

Tomorrow: Regions 1 and 2