Last week, the focus was on the NCAA Tournament. But before we can get there, there’s a Big Ten Tournament of substantial proportions to consider. Based on how this season has gone, it’s likely to have plenty of its own fireworks before the largest stage comes around.

Last Hoopla: A Month from March

This year’s Big Ten Tournament takes place from March 4-8 in Indianapolis. The last regular season games for the conference take place on March 1. Between now and then, teams have five (or six, for Iowa and Northwestern) games to move up and down the seedings.

There’s also the new wrinkle, as of last year, that the bottom three teams miss the conference tournament entirely, so there is a significant level of importance to these games up and down the standings. If the season were to end today, the bracket would look like this:

Let’s go through the three key lines of the tournament — Earning a double bye, single bye and qualifying for the tournament at all — and see what teams are in line to make a move.

(Percentages of seed likelihood are via CBB Analytics)

In The Hunt: Minnesota (49.0%), Michigan State (18.8%)

If one thing in this bracket can be etched in stone, it’s that UCLA will be earning two byes. After beating Michigan in Ann Arbor in a banger of a game, the Bruins now have at least a two-game lead, and tiebreakers, over the entire conference. They have over a 99% chance at earning the No. 1 seed, let alone finishing top four.

The Wolverines are also pretty safe with an 11-2 record, but the end of their schedule does leave some intrigue on the table. Michigan ends the season playing Michigan State, Iowa, Ohio State and Maryland, four teams all among the upper echelon of the conference, and teams that also all have at least a fighting chance at the double bye.

Iowa has lost three straight, but the Hawkeyes at least have the excuse they were against solid teams. The upcoming week against Washington and Nebraska feels massive, not only to stay in the Big Ten’s top four, but also to maintain a Top 16 placement nationally for NCAA Tournament home games.

If the season ended today, the Buckeyes would be the Big Ten 2-seed, but the analytics have Ohio State as the team least safe in its current top four standing. Maybe it’s because Ohio State has not impressed the numbers all year — OSU ranks 19th, 19th and 17th in Her Hoop Stats, Bart Torvik and the NET rankings, respectively — or maybe it’s the remaining schedule: Maryland, Minnesota, USC, Michigan and Michigan State. It’s all prove-it games for the Buckeyes from here, but they control their double bye destiny.

Oh Minnesota, how disrespected you are in the eyes of Associated Press voters. The Gophers have won six straight, beat Iowa on the road, are Top 10 in Torvik and the NET and still found themselves just outside that poll. Nasty.

Minnesota also finds itself right on the cusp of a double bye, with a near coin flip chance of making the jump up. It’s a reasonable schedule to end it, and the back-to-back home games against the Buckeyes and Spartans could potentially decide their fate. Regardless, what a year for these Gophers, such a fun set of players that have stuck together and are seeing the rewards of it this season.

Despite back-to-back losses, Michigan State still has a road into the double bye, but it likely depends on the results from this week. Games against UCLA and Michigan could catapult the Spartans into a new stratosphere of hype, or if could lead to losses in 4 of their last 5, and push them more into fighting for a single bye to end the season. Big, big week for Michigan State, even a 1-1 result would be massive for this group.

In The Hunt: Oregon (42.8%), Illinois (30.9%), Nebraska (6.5%)

The aforementioned Spartans and Gophers are in great shape to at least stay within the top nine for the rest of the season. The remaining spots are pretty up for grabs, with five teams primarily battling for seeds 7-9.

Both Maryland and USC sit at 7-6, and yet both are well ahead of Washington in likelihood here despite the Huskies’ 8-5 record. Washington even beat Maryland in double OT two weeks ago.

The analytics are higher for both teams across the board, but Maryland also has found its momentum after a four-game skid. Back-to-back lopsided road wins over Michigan State and Nebraska have the Terps back on the right path, and despite a few touch road games left (Ohio State, Michigan), Maryland also has Penn State, Purdue and Northwestern at home, where the Terps will be heavily favored each time.

USC’s schedule also has weak points (Indiana, Wisconsin, Penn State) in between tough games at the Buckeyes and home against UCLA. More importantly, the Trojans have won four straight and are playing some of their best basketball as a unit, led by some improved play by the trio of Jazzy Davidson, Kara Dunn and Kennedy Smith, the latter of which has really started to hit her offensive stride.

Smith has 37 points, 18 rebounds, 9 assists, 3 steals and 6 blocks across her last two games. With Davidson taking on such a workload this year and the defense remaining elite, having Smith and Dunn step up has really turned USC into a team I would want to avoid at all costs.

All of that to say, Washington has eight Big Ten wins and is in a great position to hold onto this spot if the Huskies can handle business. Washington’s last two wins came in overtimes, and despite the two losses sandwiched between them, it has been nice to see five-star freshman Brynn McGaughy find more of an impact in extended minutes lately. Avery Howell’s 34-point, 14-rebound effort against the Badgers deserves a world of credit as well.

The issue: There’s not an easy game left: Washington’s home matchup with Nebraska is as good as it gets, along with two games against Oregon and road trips to Iowa and UCLA.

Speaking of those two games! Oregon has a very clear way to get itself right into the bye zone: Beat Washington twice. The rest of the schedule: home vs. Nebraska, road against Indiana and Purdue, is manageable, too, so watch out for the Ducks to make a push. Oregon had won four straight prior to losing to Ohio State, and Ehis Ehute — who had 63 points and 28 rebounds in the three games before the Buckeyes defeat — has become quite a weapon down the stretch.

I may have jumped the gun on Illinois hype after a strong prior week. Two single-digit losses to Oregon and USC keeps the Illini well out of Top 16 aspirations, but the schedule eases up for the next three games to potentially get them back on track.

Finally, Nebraska is having a tough stretch. Three straight defeats by double-digits has sent the Cornhuskers into a situation of needing quite a lot to earn that first day bye. A good news bad news situation about the remaining schedule: Three games are against teams in this tier to potentially make a move, but all three of those games are on the road, where Nebraska is 1-5 so far this season.

In The Hunt: Northwestern (2-10, 18.7%), Penn State (1-12, 11.3%), Rutgers (1-12, 6.9%)

The three teams above fighting for a bye are all extremely safe in making the Big Ten Tournament. Wisconsin is also extremely likely to be safe thanks to its chaos wins, but the Badgers still have to be a little weary of the next three teams below them, as Wisconsin lost to all three which could cause tiebreaker concerns.

The Hoosiers were in true danger territory with an 0-10 conference record, but took care of business with three straight wins against fellow foes in this range, and still have Rutgers and Penn State to play to end the season. Purdue also has the Knights and Northwestern left to go, but an OT loss to Penn State gives the Boilermakers a little more concern than if they were to get that fourth victory.

The bottom three teams all need to make big leap in quality to end the season if, well, they don’t want it to be the end of their seasons.

Northwestern, to me, feels like the most likely to have fight for a few reasons. One, the Wildcats have an extra game in hand to work with. Two, they end the season at home against Purdue, which could be a play-in depending on other results. And three, this is Joe McKeown’s last season, and there has to be some level of desire to end the head coach’s career on somewhat of a high.

Penn State got its first win of the Big Ten season — and second in the past two years! — with an OT victory over Purdue. It gives the Nittany Lions a pulse that had been lacking for the entirety of 2026. Northwestern, Rutgers and Indiana remain on Penn State’s schedule, and if all three of those are wins the Lions may sneak into the field. The strategy of “let Kiyomi McMiller shoot it 30 times a game and see what happens” is a little too volatile for me to trust that three wins are left on the schedule, though.

Finally, Rutgers. This team is struggling in a bad way offensively, having scored more than 60 points exactly one time since Jan. 1, and it was in a win over Penn State!

Since then, six straight losses, five of which are by 21 or more. The most recent defeat was by only 11 to Minnesota, and the remaining schedule is very favorable if Rutgers has anything left in the tank. Unfortunately the offense, which ranks 338th in field goal percentage, has left no reason to think that is the case right now.

The full seeding probability breakdown, via CBB Analytics:

(TTQ: Torvik Thrill Quotient)

Photo Credit: USC Women’s Basketball (@USCWBB), Twitter

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