Who Could be at the Top?

Two Wednesdays in a row, I apologize!

It has been a bit hectic life wise in the past month or so, but the chaos should be slowing down, and the schedule should be back to the consistent Tuesday release next week. It better be, because we’re about to have in-conference games that need discussion.

Also, as far as football is concerned:

Last Hoopla: The Standout Individuals

Basket Under Review Post: Pokes Powered by the Perimeter

This upcoming weekend, we get the joy of true, real, Grade A Big Ten hoops. All 18 teams will be facing off for one game apiece against each other, giving us our first true head-to-head comparisons to make sweeping judgments on until the real thing starts later this month.

But going into these debut conference games, has anything changed on who might be truly contending for the Big Ten crown? So far, I think five teams have proven potentially capable, with some being more “real” contenders than others. There are also more than five teams playing great basketball, but I think these teams have made an early case before the head-to-heads for a variety of reasons:

UCLA (8-1)

AP Poll: 4th | NET Ranking: 4th | Her Hoop Stats Rating: 5th | Bart Torvik BARTHAG: 3rd

The Bruins were the preseason Big Ten favorite, and continue to be the favorite after an early portion of the season that has truly tested this unit.

UCLA has picked up early victories against Oklahoma, UNC, Duke and Tennessee, three of which are currently ranked opponents, and all of which were extremely lopsided. Even the lone defeat — a nine-point loss to No. 2 Texas — comes with a bit of a silver lining considering the Bruins trailed by 23 points late in the third before bringing it within four points a few times in the final frame.

It’s been interesting to not only see UCLA dominate a wide variety of very talented teams, but to see the Bruins do it without an over reliance on Lauren Betts. Betts is fourth on the team in scoring (13.3 PPG) while Gabriela Jaquez (15.6), Kiki Rice (15.3) and Gianna Kneepkens (13.9) have taken more of the responsibility. Charlisse Leger-Walker (10.6) and Angela Dugalić (11.1) are also averaging double-figures, and that six-player unit is going to be a monster to deal with all season.

Michigan (6-1)

AP: 6th | NET: 5th | Her Hoop Stats: 8th | BARTHAG: 6th

Up next in both the AP poll and the analytics are the Wolverines, who have had a similar tale to UCLA to this point in the campaign.

Michigan has also been tested early on, and has proven capable of the challenge with a monstrous 39-point win over No. 18 Notre Dame, as well as another lopsided victory against Syracuse. Also like the Bruins, Michigan’s one loss is to a Top-2 team: A 72-69 defeat to No. 1 UConn. It was a loss that proved the Wolverines absolutely could compete with any team in the country, which makes them a real threat to win the conference at their peak.

Syla Swords (13.3 PPG) had the heroics in the UConn game, but Olivia Olson (16.7 PPG, 2.1 SPG) and Mila Holloway (13.1 PPG, 5.1 APG, 2.9 SPG) have been equally significant in this early stretch. Both Brooke Quarles Daniels (5.4 PPG, 4.3 APG, 2.1 SPG) and Te’Yala Delfosse (11.9 PPG, 6.1 RPG) have stepped up extremely well into their roles to give Michigan a well-rounded attack that is even more difficult to deal with defensively.

Maryland (9-0)

AP: 7th | NET: 10th | Her Hoop Stats: 10th | BARTHAG: 13th

Three of the six remaining undefeateds in the Big Ten have impressed me the most thus far, and one of those is certainly the Terps.

Though not the rigorous non-conference slates of the past, Maryland has still had its fare share of important battles and has come out on top every time. There have been solid victories against upset-capable teams like Georgetown, Princeton and George Mason, and then there’s the 74-66 win over No. 17 Kentucky that the Terps controlled for nearly the entire second half. Torvik’s Wins Above Bubble stat has Maryland fifth nationally (+2.1), showing it has not been smooth sailing simply because of an easy schedule.

Kaylene Smikle (13.7 PPG in 17.3 MPG) is continuing to ramp up back into the star she was last year, and she had her best game against the Wildcats with 22 points in 23 minutes. Oluchi Okananwa (13.3 PPG), Addi Mack (12.3 PPG, 56.9%) and Yarden Garzon (10.7 PPG, 3.0 APG) have boosted the Maryland offense, with Garzon also rounding more info form as of late after a slow start.

Iowa (8-0)

AP: 12th | NET: 11th | Her Hoop Stats: 17th | BARTHAG: 18th

The first three teams listed here are the same three teams I finished the preseason previews with, so they are to be expected. Iowa, it appears, I may have underrated.

The Hawkeyes have really impressed me through eight games. They’ve been able to handle some really strong opponents like Miami (FL) and Fairfield, as well as the biggest one: A 57-52 victory against No. 14 Baylor. Iowa’s also been doing it with some key nagging injuries, losing Chit-Chat Wright (12.6 PPG, 4.8 APG) and Emely Rodriguez (7.2 PPG) in the Baylor and Miami wins.

Both appear to be on their way back soon, and will join a core that has thrived in the frontcourt. Ava Heiden (16.0 PPG, 9.9 RPG, 1.1 BPG) has ignited, and Hannah Stuelke (12.5 PPG, 8.4 RPG) has played well alongside. A shoutout as well to senior Taylor McCabe (9.3 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 41.8 3PT%), who leads Iowa in minutes and has played excellently in her role.

Michigan State (8-0)

AP: 20th | NET: 7th | Her Hoop Stats: 7th | BARTHAG: 21st

Finally, I’m going with the Spartans. The analytics love what Michigan State has been doing so far, but it has also come against mostly easy competition, so take it with a grain of salt.

Now that I’ve prefaced that, let’s look at why they are Top 10 in the NET and on HHS:

• PPG: 96.4 (2nd in the NCAA)

• Opponent PPG: 50.4 (6th)

• Margin of Victory: +46.0 (2nd)

• Effective FG%: 61.4% (1st)

• Assists Per Game: 24.5 (1st)

• Turnover Rate: 11.0% (lowest in NCAA)

• Opponent Turnover Rate: 31.9% (4th-highest)

Ahh. Michigan State finally faced a test last week against Clemson, and handled it with a 72-64 win. Even then, the Spartans shot 59.1% from the field led by 22 points, 12 rebounds and five assists from Kennedy Blair.

Blair’s freshman season was unremarkable statistically (3.4 PPG, 1.1 APG), but she has been huge for Michigan State early this season: 12.6 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 6.1 APG and 2.3 SPG. Per usual, the Spartans are very well-rounded, but Blair, Grace VanSlooten (15.8 PPG, 2.6 SPG) and Rashunda Jones (11.8 PPG, 5.0 APG, 3.4 SPG) have been at the tip of the spear.

Michigan State, as a concept, could be a Big Ten contender. Robyn Fralick’s system creates incredible efficiency and causes a lot of disruption on defense. But the Spartans have been analytical darlings before with a light non-conference schedule, so only time will tell if it can stay dominant against other Big Ten threats.

!!! BIG TEN GAMES THIS WEEKEND !!!

As mentioned above: Each Big Ten team is playing a Big Ten team this weekend. We will get one game apiece to work with until late December, and here are the matchups in order of my excitement (also using the Torvik Thrill Quotient):

BANGER LIKELY

• 12/7 — No. 7 Maryland at Minnesota (TTQ: 95)

If you are only choosing one game (not my recommendation!) this is the one that has my attention the most. Maryland is the better team on paper, but a road matchup against a stifling defense like the Gophers should make this one real interesting. Minnesota also has more experience as a unit to add even more fuel to a potential upset or, at the very least, a terrific game.

• 12/6 — No. 21 Washington at No. 16 USC (TTQ: 81)

These are the next two teams I would have discussed above, as both could be capable of high finishes in this conference. Elle Ladine has returned for limited minutes, and she will be huge for Washington to pull out a road victory against this smothering USC backcourt. The Trojans have two losses thus far and could use a ranked win to boost the résumé. Also as a fun extra side story, this will be an Avery Howell homecoming, so plenty to watch this one for.

• 12/7 — Indiana at Illinois (TTQ: 76)

It’s hard to know what to make of either of these teams quite yet, which makes this one of the most intriguing matchups of the weekend. The Hoosiers were Audi Crooks’ed last weekend, but have played better than expectation on the whole and will now get a massive road test against a young, talented Illini group that is working to find consistency.

BANGER POSSIBILITY

• 12/6 — Nebraska at Penn State (TTQ: 74)

Nebraska is undefeated and won a sizable test taking down Virginia, but Penn State will be the Cornhuskers’ first road game of the season. On the other side, this will be the first Big Ten test for the Gracie Merkle-Kiyomi McMiller duo to see what the Lions are potentially capable of. This one screams potential offensive fireworks at the very least.

• 12/7 — Oregon at No. 4 UCLA (TTQ: 80)

UCLA has been laying waste to a whole lot of good teams, but Oregon is currently 9-0 and has won two road games thus far. The Bruins will be heavy favorites here regardless, but the Ducks had a habit of bringing opponents into their muck last year, which could make this one interesting to watch.

ROAD TESTS

• 12/7 — No. 20 Michigan State at Wisconsin (TTQ: 65)

• 12/7 — No. 23 Ohio State at Northwestern (TTQ: 61)

• 12/6 — No. 12 Iowa at Rutgers (TTQ: 57)

It’s not easy to win on the road during conference play, so all three of these games are worth watching to see if one of these ranked teams gets caught off guard. Wisconsin feels the most likely to do it, both because of the Badgers’ roster and because of how high Michigan State has been flying.

YOU NEVER KNOW!

• 12/7 — Purdue at No. 6 Michigan (TTQ: 61)

Things happen sometimes! Purdue has been losing to teams I would not recommend losing to, and Michigan has looked tremendous even in defeat, but hey, the Boilermakers could find a spark and the Wolverines could underestimate them. I can’t predict the future!

Photo Credit: Michigan State Women’s Basketball, Twitter

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