Join the This is part two of my NCAA Tournament preview for all of the Big Ten teams. To see my thoughts on Oregon, Michigan, USC, Washington, Michigan State and Iowa, read part one at the button below:

The first preview ended up being uhhh a little longer than I planned, so I’m going to keep the intro brief. Here, I will do an overview of each of the Big Ten teams in the top two regions and what their potential routes look like, with an emphasis on first weekend games.

Here’s another look at the full bracket:

This is also another callout to join The Hoopla Groupla ‘26 on ESPN. It is free and it is more fun with more people! Beat me (Sir Hoopla) and you will get to see your beautiful bracket name in a future post!

The Fighting Shauna Greens come into the NCAA Tournament with some momentum from the Big Ten Tournament, where they took down a very strong Michigan State team and gave Iowa a great fight for the second time in as many weeks.

It was especially promising for Illinois to see some strong improvements defensively, the area it has had the most trouble with all season. The Illini hold opponents to 42.5% shooting and 47.8% shooting from two, both of which are bottom 100 in the nation. They aren’t particularly strong at forcing turnovers either, ranking in the bottom half in rate.

Illinois makes up for this with a very solid attack that ranks 16th in 3PT%, 25th in FG% and is No. 2 in the country from the line at 81.5%. The Illini also don’t need to force as may turnovers because they avoid making them, ranking 15th in the country in TO rate.

Berry Wallace (18.4 PPG, 6.2 RPG) is the star that leads the way. The sophomore has blossomed into such a complete scorer and is terrific at getting — and converting — at the line.

Behind her are two extremely gifted freshmen that continue to get better as the season goes on. Cearah Parchment (13.4 PPG, 8.5 RPG, 1.8 SPG) has been sensational, and her numbers improved against tougher opponents in Big Ten competition. Destiny Jackson (9.9 PPG, 4.0 RPG, 5.2 APG) has scored in double figures in 11 of her last 13 games and was terrific in the Big Ten Tournament. She has unbelievable poise for a first-year point guard.

This team has rallied well from the loss of Gretchen Dolan who is out for the rest of the season for the second year in a row. It’s a group led by three underclassmen, but they are a dangerous bunch that can get hot from the field quickly.

Colorado is a very interesting first matchup. The Buffaloes do not have much of anything in terms of stats that fly off the page. They are a strong defensive team that rebounds well (31st in rate), is good not great at forcing turnovers (80th in TO rate) and does a large majority of their work inside the arc, ranking in the bottom 50 in threes made with a lackluster percentage (27.6%, 306th).

All that said, what does jump out is the wins. The Buffaloes have victories over TCU, Oklahoma State, Iowa State and Baylor. It’s a balanced team, but Desiree Wooten (13.3 PPG) leads the team in scoring while primarily coming off the bench. Anaëlle Dutat (8.6 PPG, 8.1 RPG, 1.7 SPG) and Zyanna Walker (11.4 PPG, 2.1 SPG) lead the starting five on both sides of the floor and will test Illinois’ inexperienced group plenty.

I think Illinois gets out of this game because Colorado isn’t strong enough offensively to take advantage of the Illini’s main weaknesses. Obviously the Buffaloes can do it (see: TCU win), but on the whole, I like Illinois’ chances.

The next team would almost certainly be Vanderbilt and man, I love Vanderbilt. Shea Ralph has built a monstrous team with one of the best players in the country at the core of it — Mikayla Blakes (27.0 PPG, 4.4 APG, 2.9 SPG) — along with a great group of supporting members including SEC Freshman of the Year Aubrey Galvan (13.1 PPG, 5.9 APG, 2.6 SPG).

Illinois’ defense likely cannot hold Blakes and Galvan down enough to get through here, but a first round win for this young Illini group would be another sign of excellent progress for the program.

Prediction: Round of 32

The metrics say the Terps were robbed of home games for these first two rounds, and while yes, simply beating Oregon probably would have gotten them there, it’s hard to argue against Maryland deserving it for the season at-large.

It’s been a streaky year for Maryland, starting the campaign 14-0 before falling to 17-6, then winning six in a row before coming into this tournament off back-to-back defeats. Every loss this year has been to a Big Ten team in this tourney, and two have come in overtime.

Where the Terps shine is in the paint. Maryland is both efficient (35th in 2PT%) and high-volume right at the rim, and it opens up everything else the team does well. The Terps have the eighth-best rebound rate in the country, buoyed by the third-best offensive rebound rate: Maryland rebounds 42.7% of its own misses.

The team’s leading offensive rebounder is also its best player, and that’s Oluchi Okananwa (18.0 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 2.3 SPG). I knew she would be good coming over from Duke, but she has been much better than good. She is a two-way force that is absolutely lethal inside arc. Over half (3.2) of her rebounds are offensive and she also leads the team in steals on the other end.

The trio of Yarden Garzon (12.7 PPG, 87 3PT made), Saylor Poffenbarger (9.8 PPG, 7.0 RPG, 1.9 SPG) and Addi Mack (10.7 PPG) are the next most reliable scoring options, and Garzon has made critical shots at many points in her career while at Indiana. The last time we saw her, though, she went 1 for 11, so Maryland will need a bounce-back from her to make a run.

Maryland’s weakness this year has been defending the perimeter. The Terps are a solid defensive team overall, but teams shot 33.4% (327th) and made 211 threes (280th) against them on the year. That, along with consistency, are the two areas that could cost this team, but with losing Kaylene Smikle and Ava McKennie after seven games and Lea Bartelme after four, this has been another year of true resiliency for these Terps.

Maryland’s first test is against Murray State, who have only lost once since Nov. 18. That 11/18 loss though? An 84-64 defeat to Illinois.

The Racers live up to their name: They move. The team averages 86.1 PPG (5th in NCAA) and has the 24th-fastest pace in the country. They are excellent at getting to the line (3rd in rate) and converting at it (79.7 FT%, 6th), while also keeping down their turnovers (14.4% rate, 10th). Murray State also keeps opponents inside the arc better than any team in the country, with 64.1% of opponent points coming from twos.

Three players on Murray State also score 17+ PPG, including Hoopla alum Sharnecce Currie-Jelks (17.7 PPG, 11.8 RPG, 55.3 FG%).

That last part isn’t a particular issue for Maryland, and neither is the pace. The Terps should be able to handle the speed and interior attack Murray State brings as long as the Racers don’t have an anomaly day from behind the arc.

While I don’t think Western Illinois’ chances of upsetting are zero, this is likely a collision course to North Carolina, the team that may have stolen Maryland’s home games. The Tar Heels are 19th in the NET, 18th in Torvik and 13 on Her Hoop Stats, but remain an excellent defensive team with five players averaging between 11.3-9.2 PPG.

Lanie Grant (10.6 PPG, 43.1 3PT%) and Hoopla alum Elina Aarnisalo (10.2 PPG, 41.9 3PT%) give UNC a dangerous perimeter threat, while Nyla Harris (11.3 PPG, 6.7 RPG) shoots nearly 60 percent inside the arc and averages 2.9 offensive rebounds per game.

In a vacuum, I think Maryland is a better team with more ways to win with explosive performances. The game being in Chapel Hill makes it a true toss-up, but I am leaning on some anger about missing the Top 16 to fuel Maryland into the second weekend. I don’t think the Terps can survive a UConn onslaught from there, but maybe we can get similar excitement to the Bama-Maryland Round of 32 all-timer in one of these games.

Prediction: Sweet 16

There is a lot to be encouraged about with how Ohio State enters this tournament. The Buckeyes rallied from losing 3 of 4 to destroy Michigan State, on the road, in the regular season finale, then beat Indiana and Minnesota before fighting with the Bruins the entirety of the game.

Perhaps most encouraging to me was how Ohio State stayed in that game without much from Jaloni Cambridge (22.8 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 4.6 APG, 1.9 SPG), who has been one of the two best players in the Big Ten this season, in my opinion. She scores from everywhere, including from the mid-range, which makes her extremely dangerous as a threat to do just about anything offensively. She’s also ridiculous in transition and can takeover a game with her speed.

So, too, can Jaloni’s sister, Kennedy Cambridge (9.0 PPG, 3.3 APG, 3.9 SPG). She is one of the best perimeter defenders in the country and averaged nearly four steals per contest for her efforts. Elsa Lemmilä (9.3 PPG, 7.3 RPG, 2.2 BPG) is equally disruptive as a post presence, making Ohio State very annoying all over the floor defensively.

The largest X-factor for me, though, is Chance Gray (14.9 PPG, 40.6 3PT%), who ended the season on an absolute tear. Over her last eight games, Gray is averaging 19 PPG and is shooting 50.9% (29 of 57) from deep. If she can keep up even a little of that pace, it opens up Ohio State’s offense dramatically.

On the whole, this is one of the most well-rounded Ohio State offenses in recent memory. The Buckeyes are Top 40 in 2PT, 3PT and FT%, and average 0.93 points per play (22nd in NCAA). They move the ball around (11th in APG) and avoid turnovers (15th in AST/TO ratio). All of this, of course, is helped by the Ohio State press, which forces 21.4 TOs per game (17th).

Two key weak points for the Buckeyes: Rebounding and three-point defense. Ohio State has a 49.6% rebound rate (218th) and has a Bottom 30 opponent 3PT% (33.7%). Three of Ohio State’s defeats have come from teams hitting 11+ threes, and the Buckeyes have allowed teams to shoot north of 40 percent from deep 11 times.

Howard should not be an issue for Ohio State. The Bison may get to the line a lot, something else the Buckeyes can be susceptible to, but the offense does not have enough firepower to make me consider them for the massive upset.

Who would Ohio State be playing in the Round of 32? Folks, I’m not so sure I know! Perhaps my bracket could even include a little bit of Stags? It will be one of either Notre Dame or Fairfield, and… is it insane of me to say I am more interested to see how the Buckeyes would handle the Stags?

If it’s the Irish, the focus is Hannah Hidalgo (25.2 PPG, 6.4 RPG, 5.3 APG, 5.4 SPG). That’s it. I don’t mean to be rude, but that is literally all you have to contain if you want to beat Notre Dame so far this season. The Irish are 35 POINTS WORSE when Hannah Hidalgo is off the floor. Just contain her a little bit and you can win, which I think Ohio State can do.

Fairfield is the far more interesting team. They have two 16+ PPG scorers, run a methodical, hyper-efficient offense and also force a whole lot of turnovers. The Stags played both Iowa and UNC tough earlier this year while also getting wins over Villanova and USF. I think the Buckeyes get to the Sweet 16 regardless, but I’d much rather see this matchup.

A potential game with Vanderbilt would be incredible, I’d argue it’s one of the most entertaining hypothetical matchups of the tourney. Blakes vs. Cambridge would be so special and I think Ohio State would have a strong shot here. I am going the Commodores off the back of the perimeter shooting — Blakes, Galvan and Justine Pissott (11.4 PPG, 89 3PT made, 42.2 3PT%) is simply too much to deal with.

Prediction: Sweet 16

The Cornhuskers became Big Ten’s Team No. 12, sneaking into the NCAA Tournament through the First Four despite an immediate Big Ten Tournament exit. A lot of this is likely due to the metrics, which absolutely love everything they’re doing for some reason.

Nebraska’s strength is on offense, which averages nearly 80 PPG and ranks 7th and 31st in 2PT and 3PT%, respectively. The Cornhuskers move the ball around extremely well — eighth in the nation in APG — and keep the turnovers down well enough to have a 1.33 AST/TO ratio (17th).

Britt Prince (17.4 PPG, 4.5 APG, 53.4/45.2/90.5) is the engine for this well-oiled attack. She has outrageous 50-40-90 efficiency and plays a very selfless game, sometimes to a fault. Her best co-star this season has been Amiah Hargrove (13.1 PPG, 5.4 RPG), who more recently entered the starting lineup but who has shined in every role this season.

Prince and Hargrove are a sophomore duo that the Huskers can hopefully build through for the next few seasons, but what could determine their fate this tournament — and literally tonight as of writing this — is the defense. Teams are shooting 44.8% from the field and 52.3% from inside the arc this season against Nebraska, the 9th- and 7th-worst numbers in the country. Teams have carved up the Huskers a lot this year (nine games allowing 80+), and a strong offense, especially on the interior, could spell trouble for them.

Richmond is a slow-moving well-oiled machine that has a Top 5 effective FG%, the ninth-best 3PT% and 11th-best 2PT% in the country. Maggie Doogan (21.0 PPG, 7.8 RPG, 3.9 APG, 1.1 BPG, 50.3/40.2/89.2) was less than a single free throw percentage away from also achieving a 50-40-90 and is one of the most dangerous players in the nation, mid-major or otherwise.

The Spiders do have a perimeter-oriented play style, but I think they exploit the weakness, Doogan has a big game and Nebraska falls here. The Spiders are an excellent team and Nebraska will have to speed them up to break through.

If the Huskers do break through, I think Baylor’s defensive excellence would frustrate them, and Taliah Scott (20.0 PPG) should be able take over. It’s actually not a terrible matchup for Nebraska in theory — the Huskers have a better NET rating than the Bears as well — but I don’t expect them to get the opportunity.

Prediction: First Four

My beloved Gophers, how I’ve loved watching you blossom this season.

This is one of the most cohesive teams in all of college basketball, a starting unit that has stuck together for multiple seasons and has found success by doing exactly that. Minnesota will slow you down (297th in pace) and beat you on the margins. The Gophers have the No. 3 TO rate (13.4%) and No. 4 AST/TO ratio (1.51) in the nation, along with being Top 25 in fouls per game (13.7). Simply put: This team is not likely to beat itself.

The Gophers are a solid shooting team from everywhere (37th in FG%, 39th in 3PT%) and they are an excellent rebounding group (20th in rate). The defense isn’t turnover heavy, but it has contained high-level opponents all season: Only two teams (Iowa, Maryland) have scored more than 76 points on Minnesota this year.

Tori McKinney (13.1 PPG, 2.0 SPG), Grace Grocholski (12.7 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 42.3 3PT%), Mara Braun (11.5 PPG, 4.3 RPG), Amaya Battle (10.9 PPG, 7.4 RPG, 3.6 APG) and Sophie Hart (10.9 PPG, 6.6 RPG) is the starting five that Minnesota will heavily rely on. The Gophers are so hard to stop because it could be any of their nights on any given day, and Battle and Braun specifically have rounded more into expected form later into the season.

Minnesota’s key weakness is its inability to get to the line (12th-worst FT rate in the country) and how much it allows teams to try and win from the perimeter (20th-highest opponent 3PT rate). If it means anything, the Gophers are 9-4 when allowing teams to attempt 20+ threes, but the right team on the wrong day could end their season with it.

I don’t believe Green Bay is that team. The Phoenix shoot well enough (50th in FG%), but do not prioritize the three ball and will play at the pace that the Gophers prefer. They also get killed on second chances (19th-worst offensive rebound rate), which Minnesota is particularly good at stopping already.

The next matchup is interesting to me. It will probably be Ole Miss, but I don’t think Gonzaga can be discounted. The Bulldogs are elite rebounders (3rd in rate) and have the second-best three-point percentage. That combination makes them a team in danger of upsetting anyone. It may even be a scarier thought for Minnesota considering how the Gophers play.

Importantly for both Minnesota and the Rebels, Ole Miss is excellent at avoiding three-point barrages (6th-lowest opponent 3PT rate) and it should be able to contain Gonzaga on the inside.

The Rebels block 4.9 shots per game (25th) and get to the line a lot (558 FT made, 3rd in NCAA). Hoopla alum Cotie McMahon (19.9 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 3.0 APG) has had a strong, albeit expected, season in her new home. She still is inconsistent from deep and can be frustrated into bad performances as much as she can be ignited to set your team on fire.

This will probably be a drudge of a game and I genuinely am having a hard time with who I expect to win. I’m going to lean on home games mattering and giving The Barn enough credit to pull the Gophers into the Sweet 16, where we would likely get a Big Ten matchup (the only one I am predicting!) against UCLA.

I have UCLA winning that one, but I’ll save that for our final team.

And here we are. The undisputed 21-0 Big Ten Champions of UCLA.

What makes the Bruins good? Everything, sorry for the mess of stats in advance. On offense, they rank 2nd in points per play (1.01), 2nd in FG% (51.3%), 6th in 3PT% (37.5%) and 17th in FT% (78.2%). They average 22.3 APG (2nd), have a 1.76 AST/TO ratio (2nd) and avoid foul trouble well (39th in rate).

UCLA is also the best rebounding team in the country, collecting 60.7% of board opportunities, including 44.0% of offensive rebound opportunities (2nd). All of this combines for the most efficient offense in the country according to both Bart Torvik and Her Hoop Stats.

The defense ranks 4th on both sites, so I guess that’s not too shabby either. The Bruins hold opponents to 36.1% shooting (16th) and 0.89 points per attempt (24th). They allow the fewest defensive rebounds per game (17.8) and the sixth-lowest foul rate (12.0%), avoiding giving opponents anything easy.

If there’s something to pick at with the Bruins, it’s that they do not turn the ball over much (18.5% rate, 244th), but they also allow the third-fewest steals against them to even it out.

Now let’s look at the core rotation that makes it all happen:

This is the seven-player rotation to most likely expect in any close games UCLA sees. It’s, as I said earlier in the season, without flaw on paper.

Apologies to Cal Baptist, but UCLA will be defeating you to move on and play Oklahoma State or Princeton. Oklahoma State has a similarly balanced scoring distribution and is great on the glass (17th in rebounding rate) while ranking Top 30 nationally in 2PT and 3PT%. The defense also exists, sort of.

The Tigers also spread it around with a starting five all in double-figures despite a very slow pace (323rd). They struggled against Maryland, but have a road win over Villanova and wins over Penn State and Rutgers.

I’m leaning Oklahoma State to win this game, but neither should put up much of a fight against the Bruins, whether it be because of OK State’s lackluster defense or Princeton’s lack of firepower.

I believe UCLA would then face a familiar foe in Minnesota, a team the Bruins beat in The Barn by 18 in their only matchup. It’s not a matchup that favors the Gophers much of anywhere as neither team goes to the line much and both teams shine at forcing opposing mistakes. With the talent gap being the decider, the Bruins are likely to win a 22nd game against the conference here.

What about Ole Miss or Gonzaga? I think Gonzaga does not stand much of a chance for similar talent reasons, but the Rebels have taken down some really strong units this season (Vanderbilt twice, Oklahoma, Notre Dame) and took Texas — UCLA’s only loss — down to the wire on the road on Jan. 4. The Rebels have strong size and I think UCLA would have to work for this one, but ultimately should have the scoring to overcome them.

The Elite Eight matchup is most likely to be LSU or Duke, with a fringe opportunity for Baylor to get there. The Sweet 16 game between those two teams would fascinate me, but the Tigers have a lot of weapons to slow down Toby Fournier (17.3 PPG, 8.2 RPG, 2.3 BPG), and while the Blue Devils are a deeper unit than her, the Tigers are also stacked with weapons and I think the guards find enough scoring opportunities to get there.

UCLA fares better against Duke for the same reasons I am picking LSU: Containing Fournier. But LSU, while plenty efficient from three (38.1%, 3rd), still does not want to make its offense around it (359th in 3PT rate), but I think that’s exactly what UCLA would be able to make the Tigers do.

UCLA-LSU could be decided on the glass — these are the nation’s two best rebounding team — but UCLA’s offensive balance could tip the scales here and get the Bruins back to the Final Four.

It would be poetic to get back here after UCLA was embarrassed here by UConn last season, and it could be against Texas, the lone blemish on the Bruins’ record. It could also certainly be against the Wolverines and feed my Big Ten agendas for the rest of the decade.

For now, I want to focus on Texas. The Longhorns are a lot like LSU, which makes both of them dangerous for the Bruins, but could help UCLA with figuring out what works if it were to get this far. In the 76-65 loss back in November, Texas actually did shoot more threes than average: The Longhorns went 6 of 15. The 15 attempts were the same amount they shot in a loss to Vanderbilt when they only hit two.

Straw man argument aside, I think UCLA played the Texas game right in more ways than the only loss on the record would suggest. Rori Harmon had a ridiculous performance — 26 points and 5 assists on 9-of-15 shooting — but Madison Booker went 6 of 17. UCLA also turned it over 20 times, the most all season.

One more important detail to note before I pick the Bruins to beat the only team that has beaten them: UCLA was down 23 in the third quarter of this game. Texas had this team completely dead and ready to be embarrassed, then the Bruins got it within 4 with 4:30 still to go. Yes, the Longhorns held on, but UCLA absolutely figured something out, primarily through a Kiki Rice surge, that I think can help launch them to a win here.

If UCLA makes a national title game, 32 teams could technically meet the Bruins there. But we all know who it probably will be.

UConn consumes every team it touches besides apparently Michigan. It obliterated UCLA by 37 in the Final Four last season. It ranks 1st in FG%, 2PT%, 3PT%, opponent FG%, APG and AST/TO ratio. It, if you didn't know, has not lost this season.

I think it can be beaten.

The Huskies have a duo of stars that you simply have to try and live with. Sarah Strong (18.5 PPG, 7.6 RPG, 4.1 APG, 3.4 SPG, 1.6 BPG, 60.1 FG%, 42.7 3PT%, 87.3 FT%, my god what in the world) is the best player in the country and would be an All-Star in the WNBA right now. No pressure, but I think she could genuinely become the best player to ever do it.

Strong is going to get hers. So is Azzi Fudd (17.7 PPG, 2.5 SPG, 48.9/44.6/95.1), a disgustingly good shooter with an AST/TO above 2 and excellent defensive ability. These two are so good that I think the goal should be try to contain everyone else as much as possible and see where that leaves the Bruins.

These are UConn’s only double-digit scorers, but there is plenty of talent on the roster elsewhere, including the incredible defenders KK Arnold and Ashlynn Shade, as well as two Hoopla alums in the rotation: Serah Williams and Kayleigh Heckel.

So, where’s the hope? I think it would rely on a strong day on the boards — UConn is only 43rd in the country in rebound rate — and having Betts to at least somewhat slow down Strong while also containing players like Williams. The blueprint has to be Michigan, were Strong had 16-20-6-3-4, Fudd had 31 and the Wolverines still nearly got it done. UCLA can do better on the glass than Michigan to perhaps make up those margins.

It would take the best game UCLA is capable of, but the Bruins are one of the teams I think could do it with their best game. Betts actually played UConn incredibly well last season, it was the team around her that got completely smothered. The team around her is much of the same, but each of them got better, they added a 50-40-90 shooter, they added a top-five prospect and they have a bunch of players who remember getting embarrassed on the national stage a year ago. I think that matters.

This is a Big Ten newsletter and I watch the Big Ten teams. I am a biased source and I can live with that. I also want to see a giant fall and I think UCLA can do it. Give me the damn Bruins and let me look stupid later.

Prediction: National Champions

Think I’m stupid for picking against the Huskies? That’s fair! Prove me wrong in The Hoopla Groupla!